LA12632
- Much like animals competing for a limited supply of food or water,
social groups can be thought of as self-perpetuating entities that
compete for members. The group of religiously-unaffiliated individuals
has grown rapidly in recent times. We use research on social
conformity, together with methods from nonlinear physics, as the basis
for a mathematical model of this growth. We come to a startling
conclusion: coexistence of religious and irreligious segments of
society may be unstable! That is, our model suggests that religion
may be driven toward extinction in the long run. We test the model
with historical census data drawn from 85 regions of nine modern
secular democracies, and find that it fits data well. According to
the model, a slight advantage in the perceived utility of religious
non-affiliation should lead to the long-term decline of religion.
